India reportedly stopped water flow from the Chenab River into Pakistan via Baglihar Dam, sparking concerns in Islamabad and further increasing tensions between these nuclear-armed neighbors already entangled in longstanding disputes over Indus Waters Treaty and Kashmir.
Pakistani officials reported an abrupt reduction in water flow from one of three western rivers whose usage is guaranteed under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty brokered by the World Bank: Chenab River was one of them.
Pakistan’s Indus Water Commission has raised this matter with Indian authorities and will lodge a strong protest, according to one senior water official from Pakistan. He called India’s action an act that violates international treaties and threatens millions’ livelihoods.
“Pakistan reserves its right to bring this issue before international forums if water flow is not restored immediately,” according to an anonymous official who spoke under condition of anonymity.
Since its construction in the early 2000s, India and Pakistan have had an ongoing dispute over the Baglihar Dam located in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India insists the dam complies with treaty terms and is used solely for hydroelectric power production; Pakistan, on the other hand, accuses New Delhi of misusing water resources as geopolitical weapons.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs has not released an official statement, but unnamed officials suggest that water diversion was due to operational requirements and did not reflect an intention to breach treaty obligations.
Analysts fear this move could further aggravate already strained relations, especially following military and diplomatic standoffs. “Water has become an instrument in India-Pakistan relations,” noted Dr. Sana Ali of the Institute of Strategic Studies in South Asia. Even though India maintains it is temporary or technical diversion is taking place, analysts warn of its possible dangerous repercussions which deepen mistrust on both sides and fuel nationalist rhetoric on both sides.
Environmental and agricultural experts in Pakistan are issuing dire warnings. Farmers have reported lower water levels in key canals. If this trend continues for even a few weeks more, major crop failure could occur according to Tariq Bashir, a hydrology expert based out of Lahore.
The Chenab River is a crucial water source in Pakistan, particularly for regions without access to alternative sources. Any sustained decrease in its flow would have catastrophic repercussions for food security, water access and rural livelihoods.
International observers urge both countries to exercise restraint and renew their commitment to the Indus Waters Treaty, which has thus far withstood wars and crises between their respective rivals.
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