Recent months have witnessed an unprecedented escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At its center lies Russian President Vladimir Putin’s seemingly intransigent approach towards Ukraine; at its root lie complex mix of strategic, political, and ideological motivations that may drive his hardline approach towards Ukraine. To understand his hardline approach it’s essential to examine his geopolitical ambitions, domestic politics, as well as any relevant historical narratives that have an effect on his decision making process.
Putin’s actions reflect Russia’s desire to assert and secure influence over its neighboring nations, particularly those that were once part of the Soviet Union. With respect to Ukraine specifically, Moscow views it as part of their historical sphere of influence for cultural, linguistic, and strategic reasons – particularly given that its location on the Black Sea provides crucial access. Furthermore, Ukrainian relations with NATO and EU organizations such as NATO can be seen as direct threats against Russian security interests.
Putin sees Western influence’s expansion in Ukraine as a threat to Russia’s traditional sphere of control and violation of longstanding redlines, while his rhetoric often references “fortress Russia”, surrounded by hostile powers; Ukraine’s move away from Moscow represents an imbalance of power that poses a risk to his balance of power agenda in the region; his actions therefore reflect this deep-seated fear that his strategic advantages could erode.
Another critical component of Putin’s position lies within Russia itself. With Russia facing various economic difficulties imposed by Western sanctions, including protection of Russian-speaking populations as rallying points domestically. For instance, his 2014 annexation of Crimea was justified as necessary steps for protecting ethnic Russians and Russian speakers living abroad; tapping into feelings of pride and unity among Russian citizens. By taking an uncompromising stance toward Ukraine policy he can strengthen his power base at home by being perceived as protector of national interests of Russia.
As Putin sees it, historical restoration plays an essential role in shaping his actions. Ukraine’s loss after the 2014 Ukrainian revolution and subsequent ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych represented an unacceptable setback to his vision of rebuilding Russia as a major global power. For him, Russia’s loss of status and influence marked by Soviet collapse represents a painful setback, so taking control back over former Soviet republics such as Ukraine forms part of his agenda to bring it back to its former glory.
Putin’s unyielding approach towards Ukraine reflects his conviction in Russian exceptionalism. By portraying Russia as a civilization with unique culture, values, and politics that justifies his actions as necessary to defend Russia’s sovereignty and protect its identity; his unwavering stand on Ukraine reflects both domestic legitimacy and global influence.
Putin’s approach to Ukraine can also be understood through the prism of power politics. As Russian President, he recognizes the critical role military might and alliances play in shaping international outcomes; accordingly he sees Ukraine both as a symbol and tool to advance Russia’s geopolitical ambitions; by refusing to negotiate or yield on key issues he positions himself as an formidable player who is ready to take risks to assert Russia’s dominance on global politics.
Vladimir Putin’s uncompromising position on Ukraine can be explained as the result of a combination of strategic imperatives, domestic political calculations and deeply held ideological beliefs. The conflict goes far beyond territorial disputes or military confrontations; rather it reflects Russia’s desire to secure its place in the world and protect what they view as their rightful sphere of influence. While the future of Ukraine remains unclear, Putin is unlikely to abandon his conviction that Russia must assert itself when facing external threats.