Russian forces have recently increased the intensity of the battle for Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine as they leverage dense fog as a strategic advantage. According to Ukrainian military reporting, heavy fog has severely limited Ukraine’s drone surveillance and strike capabilities and enabled deeper incursions by their troops into Pokrovsk under cover of limited visibility. These insights were reported by The Times of India +3Biz Insider + The Kyiv Independent respectively.
Pokrovsk lies within Donetsk Oblast and has long been seen by Russian media as an entryway into other cities such as Kramators and Sloviansk. According to Reuters +1 data.
The Ukrainian 7th Air Assault Corps reported on January 22, that over 300 Russian troops have entered their city; an increase from 200 reported only two weeks earlier. Business Insider reported on this development.
Fog has allowed Russian units to utilize lighter vehicles such as motorcycles and civilian cars rather than solely relying on heavy armored assaults for infiltration and maneuvering operations.
Business Insider and The Times of India each report this development.
Ukrainian drone operators’s have suffered from the lack of visibility; their relatively inexpensive drones with optical cameras have proved less than effective when operating in low visibility conditions, according to one Ukrainian drone-specialist: “Fog weather will make these drones unusable because you simply can’t see anything!
Business Insider Although thermal imaging still works to some degree, thick fog can still reduce its effectiveness, and Russian forces are taking advantage of this situation by infiltrating and pressing into urban areas of Pokrovsk while Ukrainian defenders face an ever-eroding surveillance picture.
Russian tactic may involve more of a pincer-type maneuver rather than full-frontal assault as seen during the Battle for Bakhmut in 2023, according to Reuters.
Russia has been reported as advancing in multiple directions–south, east, and around Pokrovsk railway station–putting Ukrainian supply lines increasingly at risk. Fog has temporarily altered the battlefield by decreasing detection ranges, hindering Ukraine’s ability to spot and neutralize mobile units sneaking their way into Pokrovsk city center.
Even under difficult conditions, Ukrainian officials remain confident that supply routes to Pokrovsk remain open and that it has not yet been encircled. Kyiv disputes Russian claims of complete capture; therefore the defensive battle continues. Reuters
Analysts warn of the possible strategic and symbolic repercussions if Pokrovsk falls, including losing an important logistical hub and an erosion in morale in Donetsk region. Businesses Insider reports.
Fog-based advances shed light on how environmental conditions play a critical role in modern warfare. Russian artillery, for instance, seems less affected by fog once coordinates are known; aerial or drone-based systems may suffer more significantly as one Ukrainian expert explained: “Artillery does not care about fog if they have coordinates; once firing commences they will destroy whatever lives in that sector without issue.
Business Insider
Ukraine’s drone-heavy defence is limited by weather; Russia can take advantage of fogy mornings to penetrate contested territory quickly.
Pokrovsk stands at an inflection point. Russia’s advances, enabled by favorable weather, has increased Ukraine’s urgency in strengthening surveillance and urban-defence capabilities, while weather-driven disadvantages illustrate how vulnerable drone-heavy tactics in low visibility are. How this battle unfolds may determine not just one city but the overall balance of conflict in eastern Ukraine.